the dust bowl
the dust bowl in the 30s with record high temps and record drought, the medieval warm period, the polar warm period, the ice age, 400’ variation in sea levels, river beds under the Sahara Desert, forest fires ofm 1894 and 1910, climate extremes in Europe, vulnerability of the power grid, more sanctions, ESG investing, solar saturation point, bitcoin price surge, and finally, Noah’s Flood - the biggest climate change of all!
Over a decade of unusual amount of rain followed by very extreme drought
The rainy, wet period in the 1920s that fooled farmers in the Midwest prairie states into believing it was a good place to grow wheat is a great example of the large, unexpected changes in climate that have happened throughout history. 1930 marked a change from wet to dry - so dry that the wheat harvest was devastated. It wasn’t just dry - some of the highest temperatures in U.S. history were recorded in the 30s.
I’ve mentioned before that when a statements like “the hottest temps in 90 years”, or the “worst flood in 100 years” are made, they bring out an emotional response. But if we stop and think about it, what this type of statement is really saying is that 90 or 100 years ago, something similar or worse happened. That would hardly bring one to the conclusion that the climate is getting worse, because it’s happened before. There’s nothing new about temperature extremes, or drought, or floods, or fires, or hurricanes.
From ThoughtCo.com - “The Great Plains was once known for its rich, fertile, prairie soil that had taken thousands of years to build up. Following the Civil War, cattlemen over-grazed the semi-arid Plains, overcrowding it with cattle that fed on the prairie grasses that held the topsoil in place. Cattlemen were soon replaced by wheat farmers, who settled in the Great Plains and over-plowed the land. By World War I, so much wheat grew that farmers plowed mile after mile of soil, taking the unusually wet weather and bumper crops for granted.
In the 1920s, thousands of additional farmers migrated to the area, plowing even more areas of grassland. Faster and more powerful gasoline tractors easily removed the remaining native Prairie grasses. But little rain fell in 1930, thus ending the unusually wet period.” (emphasis mine)
Record hot weather
From a Forbes article by Marshall Shepherd Jun 20, 2022 (admittedly I’ve taken this quote out of context - Mr. Shephard doesn’t see the significance) - “Yes, the Dust Bowl was brutal. A National Weather Service website points out that, “The "Dust Bowl" years of 1930-36 brought some of the hottest summers on record to the United States, especially across the Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lake States.” Many heat records to this day can be traced back to this period, particularly the Heatwave of 1936. The 1930s were characterized by sustained periods of drought, strong high pressure systems, and soil-vegetation conditions that amplified the hot-dry condition, according to the National Weather Service. Many all-time record highs here in the South can traced back to the 1930s as well. So yes, the 1930s were hot.”
From nature.com –“[researcher] Benjamin Cook and his colleagues used the North American Drought Atlas, a 2,005-year record derived from tree-ring chronologies that reconstructs drought and precipitation patterns. They found that the 1934 drought covered more than 70% of western North America and was 30% more intense than the second most severe drought in the region, which happened in 1580.”
From wattsupwiththat , after noting “there appears to be a remarkable lack of all-time records in recent years - This is particularly striking given the increasing urbanization of the U.S. and the consequent “non climatic” warming that creeps into previously pristine records. Everything else being equal—and with no warming from increased greenhouse gases—most statewide records should be in or near big cities. But they aren’t.
This is saying that big cities are where the most emissions would be concentrated – but that’s not where the heat records have been made. My unprofessional, non-elite logic suggests from this that high temperatures are not connected to human caused CO2 emissions, but what do I know?
Medieval warm period
We know that during the Medieval Warm Period, from about 900 AD to 1300 AD, temperatures were warmer than today. Vikings settled in Greenland. Crops in Europe did very well, the population grew, some crops were grown farther north than they are today, and grain crops were even grown in Norway. People thrive with warmer temps, and wide temperature fluctuations are not new.
Polar warm period
tropical climate in the arctic- I disagree with the time scales and the methods of determining dates, but agree with the evidence that the Arctic was tropical in the past. Talk about global warming!!
“In fact, 55 million years ago the Arctic was once a lot like Miami, with an average temperature of 74 degrees, alligator ancestors and palm trees, scientists say.”
The past warm temps in northern Greenland
“The DNA, found locked in sediments in a region called Peary Land at the farthest northern reaches of Greenland, shows what life was like in a much warmer period in Earth’s history. The landscape, which is now a harsh polar desert, once hosted trees, caribou and mastodons. Some of the plants and animals that thrived there are now found in Arctic environments, while others are now only found in more temperate boreal forests.”
Ice age
While I don’t believe in evolution or the “science” consensus about the time scale of the ice age, there is no disagreement with the fact that humans lived during the ice age, and that they hunted mastodons:
humans lived during the ice age - “Armed with big, creative brains and sophisticated tools,.. these early modern humans—nearly identical to ourselves physically—not only survived but thrived in their harsh surroundings.”
tools indicate mastodon hunting - “Based on sites excavated in the western United States, archaeologists know Paleo-American Clovis hunter-gatherers who lived around the time of the extinctions at least occasionally killed or scavenged ice age megafauna such as mammoths. There they’ve found preserved bones of megafauna together with the stone tools used for killing and butchering these animals.”
sea levels
“Global sea level rose by a total of more than 120 metres (393 feet) as the vast ice sheets of the last Ice Age melted back.”
When the ice age melted, the sea level rose, apparently almost 400’. Yet I’m not aware of this being a catastrophe. As far as I know, there weren’t any species that became extinct directly because of it. Of course, there weren’t any coastal cities like New York or Los Angeles. But even if such a rise were to happen now, it would be gradual enough, perhaps a foot a year, for a few hundred years, so that people would have plenty of time to simply move to higher ground. I’d already be considering that if I lived in Venice or New Orleans or the Netherlands!
Humans not only lived during the cold of the ice age, they continued to live through the warm years when the ice melted and the sea levels rose. This was huge climate change, and mankind was none the worse for it.
Undersea explorers have found plenty of evidence of human activity in locations that are now covered with many feet of water. I just read a report of stone walls found 70 feet deep in the Baltic Sea.
Famous undersea explorer Bob Ballard studied a city 300 feet deep in the Black Sea. This city was dated (hypothetically) as only 7000 years ago. One theory is that this particular inundation may have been sudden, as the Mediterranean Sea rose from glacier melt and then breached the ridge in the Bosporus, flooding into the Black Sea:
“NPR's Alex Chadwick reports that marine explorer Bob Ballard has found evidence of a 7000 year old human settlement under 300 feet of water in the Black Sea. Ballard believes the civilization was flooded after melting ice age glaciers caused the Mediterranean to surge over its banks and flow into what was then a shallower lake. The discovery could shed light on the biblical story of the great flood.”
You might be thinking that this flooding of the Black Sea couldn’t be from the melting of the glaciers, because that supposedly happened more than 7000 years ago. First, I question the 7000 year date. Also, I question the supposed time of the melting of the glaciers. I think both dates were much more recent; like about 4000 years ago. See Mike Oar’s work on the ice age. I’ve met Mike and have a great deal of respect for him.
river under Sahara sands
Imagine the difference in “climate” just a few thousand years ago in what is now the Sahara Desert:
the Guardian, 2015:
“A vast river network that once carried water for hundreds of miles across Western Sahara has been discovered under the parched sands of Mauritania. Radar images taken from a Japanese Earth observation satellite spotted the ancient river system beneath the shallow, dusty surface, apparently winding its way from more than 500km inland towards the coast…images taken from the satellite revealed that the hidden river beds aligned almost perfectly with a huge underwater canyon that extends off the coast of Mauritania into waters more than three kilometres deep (almost 10,000 feet)…It tells us that as recently as five to six thousand years ago, the Sahara desert was a very vibrant, active river system.” We’re not talking about millions of years ago – just a few thousand!
forest fires
Are fires worse today? I don’t think so. Read the “Big Burn” by Jeannette Ingold, on the1910 forest fire that burned three million acres in North Idaho and Western Montana, with extensions into Eastern Washington and Southeast British Columbia. or “Under a Flaming Sky” by Daniel James Brown, on the terrible fire of 1894 that wiped out over 200,000 acres and the whole town of Hinckley, Minnesota.
Losses from climate extremes in Europe
From Roger Pielke Jr, the honest broker Feb 12 “Europe experiences fewer weather and climate extremes than North America or Asia, but the continent still can see large economic losses. According to the European Environment Agency (EEA) Europe averaged about €15 billion in losses annually over the decade ending in 2020. In this post I (The honest broker) share data on trends in economic losses from weather and climate extremes across Europe from 1980 to 2020.” Notice this is covering 40 years. There’s nothing new about climate extremes.
FINANCE and INVESTING
Utility danger
Our entire power grid system is getting more and more vulnerable. Future disasters in the next several years are unavoidable, because it’s going to take some time to turn things around.
From Ed Ireland Feb 16
“The drop in Texas wind output in January from a year ago follows a disappointing wind generation total for 2023 as a whole, and suggests that even with steep increases in wind generation capacity the ERCOT system may remain unable to rely on wind to supply a steady share of Texas' power needs (emphasis added).
My Take: The importance of Reuters’ admission that wind power is unreliable is notable. The North American Electricity Reliability Council, NERC, has been sounding the alarm for years that the massive amounts of wind and solar power generation added to all U.S. power grids are destroying the reliability of those grids, putting the U.S. on a collision course with disaster.”
From Forbes updates Feb 15 - “At least 1 million US homes are at risk because of something most Americans don’t know much about: dangerous power quality. When homes experience stable power quality, it means the flow of electricity powering lights and appliances is being delivered at an even and predictable pace, ensuring electricity consumption is perfectly matched with supply every minute of the day. It’s the sudden surges or sags of voltage that can lead to disaster. Interviews with more than two dozen experts, along with exclusive data, public reports and regulatory filings, paint the picture of a country dealing with power quality that’s rapidly worsening, with potentially deadly consequences.”
Energy newsbeat “Located along the eastern shore of Lake Michigan in Covert Township, the Palisades nuclear facility is a single unit pressurised water reactor, which was permanently shut down by its previous owner Entergy in May 2022 after more than 50 years of operation
US-based energy technology company Holtec International is reportedly poised to secure a conditional loan of $1.5bn from the US Department of Energy (DOE) for restarting the 800MW Palisades nuclear power plant in Michigan, US.”
More sanctions?
The first round of sanctions backfired. Russia’s economy was actually helped and ours was hurt. Why does the US think more sanctions are a good idea?
Bloomberg - “The US plans to unveil a “major sanctions package” against Russia following the death of opposition leader Alexey Navalny, the White House said. Navalny, Russia’s most outspoken anti-corruption advocate and critic of Vladimir Putin, died in prison on Feb. 16, according to the Russian government, and his body is being held, fueling speculation around how he died. The US has said Putin is responsible for Navalny’s death, while his wife Yulia has pledged to take up his cause. “
ESG investing
Many of the big corporations that previously had bought into the climate change hysteria are realizing that it’s not a profitable area to be involved in. Jeff Childers’ wrote in Coffee&Covid on Feb 20:
“Suddenly, as the economy’s nose-cone turns back Earthward and heads down, big corporations are ditching — not just ES investingG — but now their climate pledges too. In bunches…A pesky awkwardly-named group, the ‘Climate Action 100+,’ has been collecting Fortune 100 companies that “pledge” to adopt expensive, useless, and money-wasting green policies. But conservative lawyers have been claiming all this concerted corporate action violates antitrust laws, and on top of that, is usually not in the shareholders’ best interests.”
From Doomberg Feb 16 – (news item – link to ‘We Still Need
Coal’ -“If we don’t understand why coal is so valuable, we have no hope of beating our addiction to it. Coal is cheap, reliable, and easy to store for indefinite periods. Replacement technologies that fail across these critical dimensions have no hope of decreasing global demand for coal.”
solar saturation
Rooftop solar is approaching the saturation point, in my opinion. Many of the best, non-shady locations already have installed solar. Even though the cost of panels has been reduced and their efficiency has increased, interest rates and installation labor are high enough to make solar installations unfeasible without subsidies, and California is setting the lead for states to cut back on the price utilites are required to pay for surplus electricity sent to the grid. On top of that, too much solar and wind power is making the entire grid system unreliable during times when the sun isn’t shining and trhe wind isn’t blowing - sometimes just when we need power the most, like during January’s cold snap. In the next few years, there will be power outage disasters because the federal and state governments are so slow to recognize the problem - they are still cutting back on reliable, 24/7/365 fossil fuel power generation.
warning - beware of consumer solar scams
There are reports of elderly folks being tricked into signing contracts for rooftop solar that offer inducements like 0% financing and “it will pay for itself” that are packed with exaggerations and lies. Read the fine print. Don’t be hasty to sign anything - consult with family; check out the contractor, ask for referrals and actually check with them, preferably in person.
bitcoin price surge
Bitcoin is hitting $61,000 as I write this. Not sure what’s going on...although I realize this is a “halving” year (rewards for mining new coins is cut in half every 4 years) plus bitcoin is now available by investing in several ETFs (exchange traded funds) that were recently apporoved. Previous all time high was about $64,000 a couple years ago, then it dropped down to around $13,000, as I remember, for quite a while, and has been creeping up gradually over the past year; now it seems to be accelerating. Other cryptocurrencies are also being boosted in price, pulled up by bitcoin.
FAITH and CHRISTIANITY
Since the main theme today (other than financial news) is climate extremes of the past, one of the best examples is from the bible. If we believe the bible (I do; see How I Became Convinced the Bible is True”) and take Genesis literally (I do), then the world was completely flooded after Noah built the ark. 40 days of constant rain, plus the “fountains of the deep” bursting forth would certainly qualify for a big climate change. Noah is mentioned in the New Testament and spoken of as a historical figure. He is in the genealogy of Christ (Luke 3:36) and Jesus describes the important doctrine of the His 2nd coming as being like the “days of Noah”: 37 As it was in the days of Noah, so it will be at the coming of the Son of Man. 38 For in the days before the flood, people were eating and drinking, marrying and giving in marriage, up to the day Noah entered the ark; 39 and they knew nothing about what would happen until the flood came and took them all away. That is how it will be at the coming of the Son of Man.”
The author of Hebrews holds up Noah as an example of faith: “By faith Noah, when warned about things not yet seen, in holy fear built an ark to save his family. By his faith he condemned the world and became heir of the righteousness that is in keeping with faith.”
Peter has much to say to us about the Flood of Noah: “3 Above all, you must understand that in the last days scoffers will come, scoffing and following their own evil desires. 4 They will say, “Where is this ‘coming’ he promised? Ever since our ancestors died, everything goes on as it has since the beginning of creation.” 5 But they deliberately forget that long ago by God’s word the heavens came into being and the earth was formed out of water and by water. (a reference to the Creation in Genesis 1:1-10) 6 By these waters also the world of that time was deluged and destroyed.”
If you didn’t watch it earlier, watch Mike Oar’s youtube talk on the ice age as an aftermath of the Flood. Also read this piece on the Flood and the ice age.
Al, no I am doing it myself. Almost 80, I am still obsessive about global energy poverty and practical environmentalism. I have been an energy activist for the last 23 years.
Another great piece, Al.