Solar, Wind, and EV Saturation Point

Why "renewables" and EV sales are slowing down

- these are just a few points, many more could be made…

this is a repost and update with a few additions

• “The backlog of solar panels stockpiled in U.S. warehouses is so large that it could fulfill a year and a half of demand, according to the IEA.” kudos to Thomas J Shepstone from Energy Security and Freedom for this info.

• SHANGHAI, April 22 (Reuters) – China’s state planner expects an intensified price war among automakers of electric cars and plug-in hybrids this year because of overhanging supply…

solar

Approaching a saturation point is similar to the Law of Diminishing Returns. In each case, the ‘low hanging fruit’ is picked first. After that, there becomes less and less incentive to put any more time, energy, or money into ventures or projects.

With solar, the better your southern exposure, the more efficient your solar panel productivity will be. So naturally, the homes with roofs that slope to the south will get more out of their rooftop solar panels than homes with roofs that slope east and west. The same is true, of course, with the advantage of homes with a southern exposure that is unobstructed by trees or nearby buildings or a close mountain ridge that blocks out early and late sunshine, especially when the sun’s route is lower in winter. The economics of solar aren’t too great anyway, so the poor locations will not have much incentive. After nearly all of the best locations have already installed rooftop solar, demand will slow down and saturation will come into play.

The proliferation of thousands of acres of solar panels installed on prime farmland is another potential saturation point. Sooner or later, enough people will acknowledge that food is essential and we can’t live without it, while solar is easily replaceable with other forms of energy, like thermal power plants including nuclear, that take up much less acreage. As more and more farmland is covered with solar panels, the price of food will rise until there is a backlash against taking up valuable farmland.

Note: The day after this post was published, I added what Irina Slav just wrote: “…there appears to be so much money to be made from solar that all other considerations take second place. Or tenth. And while in Bulgaria using prime farmland for solar is still illegal, so you need to bribe people to do it, elsewhere it is perfectly legal and actively encouraged by the government. Solar is taking over farmland — finite, food-producing farmland.

Whatever could go wrong?”

Wow - here’s an additional update, this one about a 445 acre solar installation by NextEra, excerpted from Energy News Beat.

“sub-contractors graded Duttlinger’s fields to assist the building of roads and installation of posts and panels, he said, despite his warnings that it could make the land more vulnerable to erosion…Crews reshaped the landscape, spreading fine sand across large stretches of rich topsoil, Duttlinger said. When Reuters visited his farm last year and this spring, much of the land beneath the panels was covered in yellow-brown sand, where no plants grew…“I’ll never be able to grow anything on that field again,” the farmer said. About one-third of his approximately 1,200-acre farm – where his family grows corn, soybeans and alfalfa for cattle – has been leased.”

wind

Generally, wind farms are built where it’s the windiest, and most of those windy areas are a long way from large cities, requiring huge additional investment for transmission and distribution. map is from ecowatch.com:

Like solar, landowners who are willing to sell or lease to wind developers have been found. The remaining areas tend to be resistant to any more despoiling of the land and wildlife. People are not happy with higher electric rates and the tax money spent on subsidies. We’re reaching a saturation point.

EVs

things got nasty in chicago last winter

EVs are a niche item. They are expensive and have relatively short lives and poor trade-in values compared to ICE vehicles, so they are primarily bought by the rich. They work better in some areas than others, and they make more sense for short commutes than for longer trips. In the south where temps can get well over 100F fairly often, the Li-ion batteries have a significantly shorter lifetime. In the north or in high mountains, driving a battery powered car or truck doesn’t make any sense during extremely cold weather, so why buy one? The cold reduces battery output, which is double affected by using additional battery for the interior car heat.

The original excitement about EVs is wearing off quickly. Like any promotion of a new product, only the positives were emphasized. Now we’re all learning about the negatives, and there are many of them. Some are quite severe, like getting stranded with a dead battery in a blizzard, or the other extreme - an battery explosion and fire. I suspect that soon only stubborn diehards will continue to buy EVs, and a saturation point will be reached where sales plateau and quit rising. Caveat - hybrid sales still make sense.

There are many more reasons why a saturation point for EV and solar panels may soon be reached, but the elephant in the room is… subsidies

If sales are already slowing, what will happen when the massive subsidies are cut back?